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Golden Mantis (002081): Single quarter revenue and profit hit record high cash flow continued to improve

Golden Mantis (002081): Single quarter revenue and profit hit record high cash flow continued to improve
Growth is slightly contradictory, but single-quarter revenue and profit are record highs.The company achieved revenue of 227 in 2019Q1-3.400 million US dollars, an annual growth of 23% (expected to achieve revenue of about 2.9 billion in e-commerce equipment business, non-home improvement business revenue growth of about 22%); net profit attributable to mothers17.500 million, a 10% increase in ten years.By quarter, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 achieved revenue of 60 respectively.6/77.4/89.500 million US dollars, an annual increase of 20% / 33% / 17%, the third quarter revenue growth forecast is expected to tighten the real estate financing in the main categories of the company, some of the company’s partial repayment of slower land projects construction rhythm, reduce advances, proactive controlDue to operating risks; Q1 / Q2 / Q3 respectively achieved net profit attributable to mother 6.0/5.1/6.USD 400 million, an annual increase of 9% / 16% / 8%. The slight increase in the third quarter results is expected to be due to the company’s provision for bad debts and the closing of some of the poorly profitable Golden Mantis stores.It is obvious that the company ‘s absolute revenue and profit in Q3 hit a record high in a single quarter.It is expected that the company’s previous traditional public order orders will continue to be transformed, and the profitability of the home improvement business will improve, gradually becoming a steady and steady growth. Gross margin decreased slightly, and cash flow continued to improve.2019Q1-3 company gross profit margin 18.6%, a small margin of 0 over the same period last year.8 pct, gross margin decline is expected to be mainly due to the improvement of the proportion of income from the contribution of the hardcover technology business in the home improvement business to the hardcover decoration business in the home improvement business.Expense rate for the period 8.8%, a decrease of 0 compared with the same period last year.3 pct, in which the sales / management / finance / research and development expense rate respectively changed -0.40 / -0.11 / + 0.35 / -0.For 11 pcts, the decrease in sales expense ratio is mainly due to the decline in the marketing expenses of the Golden Fox Family Business; the increase in the financial expense ratio is mainly due to the increase in the company’s loan interest rate and the increase in discounted bills.Asset impairment losses (including credit impairment) 1.80,000 yuan, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.10,000 yuan, mainly due to the company’s increased provision for bad debts.Net interest rate fell by 0.9 to 7.7%.Net operating cash flow of Q1-3 companies in 2019 is 8.100 million US dollars, a net decrease of 9 in the same period last year.40,000 yuan, narrowed beyond the scale1.3 trillion, the improvement in cash flow was mainly due to the company’s establishment of a special audit collection team, which continued to increase the receivables repayment efforts. Cash-to-cash / cash-to-cash ratios are 88.8% / 106.2%, which are +1 higher than the same period of last year.3 / -0.6 pct. Take the initiative to accept the rhythm of bidding orders in order to seek steady and sustainable development.In 2019Q1-3, the company has a single year of 334 in the new decade.2%, a year-on-year growth of 17%, of which 185 were new public order / residential / design orders.6/126.5/22.1 ppm, an increase of 16% / 18% / 30% per year.In Q3, the company’s new long-term order was 110.0 million yuan, an increase of 4% in ten years, of which the new public installation / residential / design orders were 58.2/42.9/8.4 ppm, with an annual growth rate of 1% / 3% / 29%. The forecast of order growth in the third quarter is mainly due to the tightening of real estate financing policies. The company raised the standard of receivables for projects it undertakes, and proactively abandoned some properties with poor repayment conditionsCaused by similar projects.As of the end of the third quarter of 2019, the company had signed uncompleted orders in hand at 645.500 million US dollars, an increase of 17% / 4% per year / month respectively, about 18 years of income2.6 times, excess orders are expected to continue to transform into revenue, and promote sustained and steady growth in performance. Continue to improve management, control and service capabilities, and strengthen core competitiveness.Since the early days, the company has proactively adapted to market changes and improved its management level and service capabilities. Specifically: 1) Expand outstanding design advantages, expand public specimens and EPC business acceptance, and increase the contract value of related contracts; 2) Improve the supply chain management systemThrough centralized bidding, centralized procurement, and centralized allocation, the voice of the supply chain can be improved to achieve economies of scale. 3) BIM system for public buildings is implemented to synchronize engineering information in the cloud and promote industrialization and information transformation.Custom OEM + ODM model, through the integration of main materials, auxiliary materials and overseas ODM supplier resources to achieve the advantages of customized products throughout the house.The company continues to improve its management and control capabilities, actively research and develop products in response to new market demands, and strives to continuously improve its core 杭州桑拿网 competitiveness in the future. Investment suggestion: We predict that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 2019-2021 will be 23 respectively.6/26.7/30.20,000 yuan, an increase of 11% / 13% / 13% in ten years, the corresponding EPS is 0.88/1.00/1.13 yuan (18-21 years, CAGR is 13%), the current corresponding PE is 11/10/9 times respectively, it is currently estimated to be at historical levels, maintaining the “Buy” rating. Risk warning: real estate policy assesses risks, public order may increase risk, home improvement store profit is less than expected risk, rapid rise in raw material and labor costs, etc.