New Hope (000876) Quarterly Review: Growing poultry chain business, pig breeding business poised for growth
Event: On April 29, the company announced its 2019 quarterly report.
At the core of the report, the company achieved operating income of 162.
12 ppm, an increase of 9 in ten years.
The net profit of the parent company owner is 6.
66 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.
38%, earnings per share are 0.
We believe that: 1. The prosperity of the poultry industry has promoted a steady upward performance.
Sales and slaughter of white feather meat and poultry breeding birds are an important source of revenue and profit for the company.
The introduction of domestic ancestral white feather broilers has been inadequate for many years, as domestic white feather broiler prices have remained high since the fourth quarter of 2018.
According to Boya Hexun data, in the first quarter of 2019, the average price of white feather broiler fry reached 7.
1 yuan / feather, the comprehensive price of chicken products also reached 11.
75 yuan / kg, a high boom in the past 5 years.
The continued high price of the white feather broiler industry chain has greatly enhanced the profit flexibility of white feather broiler enterprises, and has also promoted the growth of the meat duck business and poultry feed business. The sluggish pig prices in the first quarter caused losses to the pig breeding industry.
We expect the company’s poultry industry to report a net profit by reporting production2.
90,000 yuan, net profit of feed business1.
3 trillion, investment income of Minsheng Bank equity is about 5 trillion.
2. The hog breeding business is steadily recommended. The leading shape of the leader initially shows that the company has clearly defined its strategic positioning of “bigger pig farming” in 2017, and has set a development goal of hitting 25 million hogs in 2022.
As a result, the company has increased its investment in the field of pig breeding since 2018, and construction in progress has begun to grow rapidly.
From Q1 of 2018 to 13.
7.2 billion to 26 in Q1 2019.
0.6 million yuan, an increase of 89 in ten years.
Taking into account the construction cycle, general productive biological assets will begin to grow about one year later than the construction in progress.
However, due to the outbreak of African swine fever, the productive biological assets of the company in Q1 2019 were 4.
65 ppm, a decrease of 3 from the same period last year.
Since the company’s 19Q1 asset-liability ratio is only 42%, it still 杭州桑拿网 needs financing space.
Therefore, through the preliminary improvement of the company’s epidemic prevention measures, it is expected that the company’s productive biological assets will increase significantly in the next few quarters, which will be the basis for the company’s subsequent expansion of live pig production.
We expect that from 2019 to 2020, the company will reach 3.5 million and 8 million live pigs (including outsourced piglets).
3. As the pig price enters the rising cycle, the company will face a period of net high net growth.
From international experience, it is difficult to eliminate the swine fever in Africa in the short term.
Due to the lack of relevant vaccines and drugs, the panic mood of the farmers remains, the enthusiasm for supplementing the pen is very low, and the production capacity 北京夜生活 is continuing.
As the production capacity of this round of cycles is deepened, we expect that the current round of high pig prices will reach a record high, exceeding 25 yuan / kg, and some regions will reach 30 yuan / kg.
The rapid expansion of the company’s production capacity will further enhance the company’s initial profit flexibility in the breeding boom.
4. Investment suggestion: As the impact of the African swine fever epidemic on the production capacity of the industry exceeds expectations, based on the average price of 16 yuan and 19 yuan / kg for 2019-2020 pigs, the company will attribute the company’s net profit to 28 from the original.
6.1 billion, 45.12 trillion is raised to 37.
12 billion, 70.
08 million yuan, an increase of 117 in ten years.
8%, EPS 0.
88 yuan, 1.
Maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: disease risk; policy risk; product price does not meet expected risk; pig output is not as expected;